Written by: Kim Birch | The review was last updated: 03 July 2024 | Fact-check by: Jasmin Williams
Blackjack's a hit among punters for good reason. It's got some of the best odds you'll find and a lower house edge than most other casino games. But don't be fooled – it's not just about luck. You need skill, strategy, and a solid grasp of the game to come out on top. That's why blackjack's a winner for players who know their way around the tables. If you've got the right skills and strategies, you've got a real shot at beating the house.
Whether you're playing single or multi-deck, blackjack's not just fun – it can be seriously profitable too. Put in the time to learn the rules and strategies, and you could become a real pro. It's all about analysing the game and working out your chances. This takes some serious practice and dedication, but it's worth it if you're keen to up your game.
Of course, like any card game, there's always an element of chance. Luck plays a big part in any win. The cards you're dealt are random, but you can boost your odds by keeping track of what's been played and calculating what might come next. Honing this skill can really improve your game. If you're in it for the long haul, focus on small, consistent wins rather than chasing big payouts. That's the key to becoming a long-term winner at blackjack.
Blackjack probabilities in a six-deck shoe: fair dinkum?
Probability is a branch of maths that looks at the chances of something happening. Punters use probability in heaps of casino games to work out their odds of winning or losing. It's a handy skill for card games, giving players an edge once they've got the hang of it. The basic formula is dead simple: Number of ways something can happen, divided by all possible outcomes. Take a deck of cards - there's one of each card, and 52 cards total. So, if you're after the ace of diamonds, it's 1 divided by 52, or 1/52.
You can also show these probabilities as percentages, from 0 to 100. If you know the chance of something happening, you can figure out the chance of it not happening too. Say there's a 30% chance of something - that means there's a 70% chance it won't happen. Odds are another way to express probability. Using our ace of diamonds example, with 52 cards and only one ace of diamonds, the odds of pulling it are 51 to 1.
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Let's dive into some blackjack lingo and the odds of winning and losing in this classic casino game. Positive and negative win rates are used to describe your chances at any point during play. The biggest impact on your odds comes from the different house and casino rules in play. Another term you'll hear is true odds. This is when the payout for a bet matches the actual probability. Blackjack pros often throw these terms around.
The main goal in blackjack is to beat the dealer's hand without going over 21. If you do, you're out. During play, you can choose to 'hit' or'stand'. Your choice can make or break your hand. The basic strategy chart offers some pointers on what move to make. You can check it out to help you decide. Plus, our main blackjack guide has all the cheat sheets you need to up your game and play like a pro.
Knowing your odds of busting is crucial. It gives you an idea of where you stand and helps you plan your next move. For instance, if your hand totals 11 or less, you've got 0% chance of busting. No maths needed there. With totals of 12, 13, or 14, your odds of busting are 31%, 39%, and 56% respectively. You'll notice the higher your hand, the more likely you are to bust. This info shapes your choices. For example, with 19 or 20, you're looking at 85% and 92% bust rates, so hitting would be a bad move.
Now, let's talk about another key stat. This one's about your chances of landing the highest paying combo, blackjack. In a single-deck game, you've got a 4.83% chance of getting an ace and a 10-value card right off the bat. With two decks, that drops slightly to 4.77%. Here at BETO, we've reviewed and recommended some top online casinos for Aussie punters. You can put all your blackjack know-how to use in these online versions. Just pick your preferred variant and find the best odds for you. When it comes to blackjack, knowledge really is power!
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Return to Player is a common term in blackjack, linked to winning odds. Return to Player or RTP calculates your theoretical payout, expressed as a percentage. This percentage shows how much you might get back after placing a bet.
RTP is directly related to the house edge. You can work out the RTP of any blackjack variant if you know the house edge. Different blackjack variations can have different RTPs.
Take Atlantic City Blackjack by Microgaming, played with eight decks and standard rules. Its house edge is 0.46%, giving an RTP of 99.64%. In theory, for every $100 wagered, you could win back $99.64. This is considered a fair variant. In reality, though, this RTP applies across all players, leading to varied outcomes. Games with a lower house edge tend to favour punters using optimal strategy, as their bankroll lasts longer, potentially improving their expected value.
The image below shows how blackjack odds differ across various game versions. These apply to both live and online blackjack.
Blackjack probabilities and your chances. Use top basic strategy.
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Blackjack odds: Understanding the casino's upper hand
Let's dive into the concept of the house edge. It's crucial for understanding blackjack odds. The house edge is the percentage of punters' wagers that the casino pockets. Casinos build this into the game to ensure they turn a profit. This slight advantage keeps the casino in the driver's seat.
Here's an example to break it down. Say a blackjack variant has a 1% house edge. This means the casino keeps 1% of all bets. If you're betting $100, you're likely to lose $1 per bet. Placing 60 bets an hour, you'd be down $60.
Double Zero Roulette is an online game with a house edge of about 5% (5.26% to be exact). With this higher percentage, if you make 60 $100 bets in an hour, you'd be looking at a $300 loss. Keep in mind, the house edge only applies over extended play with many bets. It's a statistical average, not a rule for individual bets, which can still result in wins, losses, or ties.
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Blackjack's a hit with punters because of its low house edge. Your chances of winning depend heavily on this value, which varies between different versions of the game. Some blackjack variants have a higher house edge, making them less favourable for players. Most blackjack games can offer a house edge under 1% if you use a bit of strategy. With the right skills and approach, you can even push this lower.
Having a solid strategy and sticking to it is crucial in blackjack. The house edge is calculated with these strategies in mind, so they're an essential part of the game. Using the right strategy can drop the house edge to as low as 0.5%. But if you ignore basic strategy, you could see the house edge jump up to 2%.
Certain blackjack rules come into play when working out the house edge. You can get a handle on this by swotting up on all the possible hands and moves. There are heaps of scenarios in a game, and if you prep yourself, you can tilt the house edge in your favour. But basic strategies alone won't cut it. You need to be able to put your plan into action when it counts. This is where many players come unstuck. To win consistently, you need discipline and self-control. You've got to remember and use the moves suggested by your base strategy. A lot of players lack the patience to stick to the plan.
Even if you cop a few losses, it's important to keep your cool and stick to the strategy to get the most out of your blackjack bets. Trying to make up for short-term losses by ditching your strategy is a rookie error and will lead to bigger losses in the long run.
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Boost your blackjack chances at the pokies with these tips
There are other ways to boost your odds in blackjack. These tips can help punters shift the balance in their favour. Learning card counting systems can improve your game performance. It's a complex method that's tough to master, used by pros to track every card on the table. For beginners, it's best to nail the basic strategy before diving into advanced techniques like card counting. Combining basic strategy with card counting can be particularly powerful.
Some card counting methods aren't too hard to pick up, even for novices. This approach helps you work out the ratio of high to low-value cards. Plus, you can use this data to figure out the theoretical average win rate per hour. But remember, you can only control so much. As a regulated casino game, the house edge will always take its cut. Instead of chasing small wins, focus on the bigger picture and strategise for long-term goals.
Another feature that can trim down the house edge in blackjack is casino comps. While playing, try to score high-value comps to give yourself an edge. 'Comps' is short for 'complimentary' - perks you get when betting in blackjack. These freebies vary between players and depend on your playing time and total bets. It's a unique chance to use these perks to your advantage, potentially outweighing the house edge.
Hand your Player Card to the dealer at the start of the game if you want to receive comps at the end. There are other tricks to maximise your blackjack session. For instance, joining a full table slows down your play, meaning fewer hands and smaller losses over time. This way, you'll minimise losses while still earning comps. Lastly, reducing the house edge to its lowest can also score you more valuable comps.
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As we've covered, tweaks to the rules directly impact the house edge, which affects your potential winnings. Different blackjack variants come with their own set of rules and house edge percentages. While some versions stick to a fixed ruleset, others allow casinos to adjust the rules to suit their needs. This is crucial info when choosing which version to play.
One key difference between game variants is the number of decks used. Here's a general rule of thumb: fewer decks typically mean a lower house edge. More decks in play push the house edge up. This is because you're more likely to hit a natural blackjack with fewer decks. For example, going from a single deck to eight decks bumps up the house edge by 0.61%.
Another factor that influences the house edge is the soft 17 rule. This rule determines whether the dealer hits or stands on a soft 17. It varies between casinos, and opting for games where the dealer stands on soft 17 is better for punters. If the rules require the dealer to hit on soft 17, the house edge jumps by 0.21%.
Your ability to double down or split also affects the house edge. Generally, more options for these moves lower the house edge. If you can't double down after splitting, the house edge rises by 0.14%. Not being able to hit split aces or re-split aces increases it by 0.18% and 0.07% respectively. The payout ratio is another factor to consider in blackjack. Changing from the standard 3:2 to 6:5 hikes up the house edge by a whopping 1.30%.
This breakdown of blackjack shows how tweaking the rules can significantly shift the odds of winning.
Blackjack rule tweaks and how they shape your odds at the table
The bonuses in different versions of online blackjack can really shake up your chances of winning.
Here at BETO, we reckon all online blackjack punters should make the most of these bonuses to boost their winnings. Get your head around the game's bonus features, and you could be raking it in without changing how you play.
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Common queries about Blackjack chances and likelihood.
When picking a blackjack game, consider factors like house edge, game rules, and return to player (RTP). Generally, the top choices offer more player-friendly rules and use fewer decks. These features can give you a better shot at the table, so it's worth doing your homework before you start playing.
Too right! The surrender option's a key player in shaping the house edge. Without it, you're looking at a 0.08% bump in the casino's favour. It might seem like small change, but in blackjack, every little bit counts towards the overall odds.
Mastering basic blackjack strategy can slash the house edge from a hefty 8% down to a mere 0.2% - 0.5%. Just keep in mind, the exact advantage you'll gain depends on the specific table rules you're playing with.
When it comes to casino games, single-deck Blackjack offers punters the best shot at winning. Using just one deck instead of six or eight makes a huge difference, slashing the house edge from 17% down to a mere 0.13%. It's a game-changer for those looking to maximise their chances at the tables.
Knowing your blackjack strategy inside out gives you a fair shot at winning - about 50/50. But don't get too cocky, because you can still cop a bad run. The odds of hitting a losing streak are pretty slim though, sitting at around 0.2%. In other words, you've got about a 1 in 510 chance of things going pear-shaped.
In blackjack, a hand of 20 gives you the best shot at winning. It's a solid bet, with 70.2% of players coming out on top, 12.2% copping a loss, and 17.6% ending in a draw. It's a pretty good hand to have in your arsenal when you're at the table.
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